When you`re sitting on top of the world, it`s sometimes easy to drop the flaws. The Cleveland Indians, at 14-8, currently own the AL`s best read and run their class by 2.5 games. While we`re a long way from anointing them 2011′s surprise team, they surely have impressed to this point. Their 5.18 runs per game actually ranks 2nd in the AL (though only a hundredth of a place ahead of Texas).
Yet amid all that, they haven`t yet clicked on all cylinders. That`s because Carlos Santana has gotten off to something of a slow start. But there are plenty of indications that his coming will pay off in the long run.
It`s easier said than done: lay off pitches out of the zone, temper yourself with pitches in the zone, wait for the mound to get a mistake, and then cut away. Yet if anyone did execute this approach, it`s light to see how they`d succeed. Laying off pitches out of the district is important, since it`s harder to do good link with them. Every hitter, even the best, will also have difficulty with certain parts of the fall zone. You can`t lay off everything there, but with less than two strikes you can even look for your pitch. It appears that Santana is doing that so far this season.
In avoiding pitches outside the zone Santana has done a phenomenal job. He has swung at only 14.5% of those pitches, which puts him right about the top of the league. He has also held off on many pitches within the zone, swinging at 48.7% of them, which is even for the lowest rank in the league. That might run to a few strikeouts looking - unsurprisingly, he`s been punched out for half of his 14 strikeouts this season. But the veto of those looking strikeouts is more than balanced by the positive that can get from this approach.
The most obvious benefit comes from the ground on balls. Santana has drawn 14 of them this season, giving him a 15.7% walk rate. That puts him about the top of the league. By not swinging at pitches out of the district not but is he creating more situations where he`ll get a pitch he likes, but he`s also making fewer outs. That seems like a win-win proposition, and it speaks to Santana`s immense talent. Clearly, not everyone can do this. That he can gives an indication of his potential as a major league hitter.
The results aren`t there yet, which is sure of some concern. Santana has just 14 hits this season in 74 AB, meaning he sits under the Mendoza Line at this point. Part of the problem is that he`s just not squaring up the ball. So far this class he has hit 34 balls on the ground, for a 55.7% rate. That`s far higher than we saw last year. They don`t seem to be screaming grounders, either, as he`s hitting just .176 off them. Further evidence is in his line drive rate, 8.2%, one of the last in the league. Combine that with a 22.7% infield fly rate - that is, five of the 22 flies he`s hit - and you make the appearances of a guy who just hasn`t found his rhythm yet.
For that we won`t blame Santana. At least not yet. He did lose the final two months of the 2010 season after incurring a nasty knee injury. That can take it harder to get back into a groove. Additionally, Santana might be the case of batter that absolutely needs that steady rhythm in rank to hit well. He has, by about two points, the last swing rate in the league. I don`t want to formulate a fictitious narrative here, so I`ll give it as speculation. But after watching Jason Giambi for 7 days in New York, it`s clear that guys with low swing rates do expect that rhythm - lest we forget Giambi`s slow start to 2005, after missing most of 2004. We could surely be seeing something on the same lines right now with Santana.
There are no guarantees, of course. Santana is a new actor who has enough to rise at the major league level. Yet his approach appears ideal. Even as he struggles he`s not swinging at pitches out of the zone, and is also selective on pitches within the zone. He`s droping at what he wants to swing at, but he isn`t yet making the right contact needed to hold the approach work. As farsighted as he sticks with it, he should determine his rhythm, and thus give out of this slump. And when he does, that Indians offense could go still more dangerous.
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