AP Photo/Kathy Willens
By now it is virtually impossible to discourse the Yankees` search for starting pitching without saying something like, "It`s no secret that the Yankees need starting pitching help". It`s all been said. Even if Andy Pettitte postpones his engagement with retirement another year and returns for the 2011 campaign it`s probable that the team could yet be looking for service on the craft market this summer.
Ivan Nova is a fine fifth starter option, but it would actually be nice if he was the sixth starter, an alternative in face of harm or a severe outbreak of Bad A.J. The job is that the trade market is a bit weak. There`s no Cliff Lee on the market this summer. Wandy Rodriguez looked like a decent target, but the Astros just extended him for 3 years. Gavin Floyd and Chris Carpenter could be really good options, but a lot needs to occur for these teams to put the players on the market. Plan B might be patience, but there`s a reasonable number of contingency contained therein.
One trade option is Johan Santana. Mike addressed the theory of acquiring Santana in this mailbag piece several weeks ago, outlining all the reasons why the Yankees shouldn`t attempt to acquire Santana: he`s coming off major shoulder surgery, his operation is in decline, and he`s expensive. All of these things are true, and yet I`m going to seek a possibly quixotic reexamination of his desirability. This will be a two part piece. Today we will see the nature of his wound and his perceived decline over the past 3 days and tomorrow we`ll look at his contract status and try to judge whether he makes sense for the Yankees as a trade target. It sounds crazy, and it`s release to get a nice number of time to draw the case. All good things take time though, unless we`re talking near a Chipotle burrito, so try to get it out with me. It`s not like there`s anything better to do on a freezing weekend in January. What, you gonna watch curling?
Injury
When Johan Santana was injured late last summer it was initially reported that he had a strained pectoral. This was slightly deceiving, in that the position of the harm is not where one would expect. When you hear "strained pec", you mean most how mad you find if you do too many bench press sets. As Will Carroll noted, the strain happened right where the muscle inserts into the humerus, just under the shoulder. You can see the depiction here. Despite initial good word out the Mets camp, which cruelly raised the hopes of Mets fans, it turned out that Santana`s injury was far more serious. Santana had torn the anterior capsule in his left shoulder and required surgery to remedy it. The harm is more uncommon than a Tommy John surgery, and Carroll went to sources to get more info near the real nature of the injury:
The anterior capsule is the front lining of the shoulder joint which so attaches to the labrum and then to the bone. The condensation is torn with the labrum often with an acute traumatic shoulder dislocation. However, in baseball with repetitive throwing the anterior capsule can only gradually stretch out and finally reach a thrower pain and a spirit of helplessness and a velocity loss. This repetitive microscopic tearing and stretching injury ultimately is what the thrower may identify as a "short arm" The character of surgery performed is very similar to the open surgery pioneered by Dr. Frank Jobe that was performed on Orel Hersheiser in the `80s, but now with advances the same surgery can be done arthroscopically. However, the healing concepts are the same and therefore the rehabilitation can be very long to get support to high level throwing. Certainly 6-9 months is not unreasonable.
In place to restore this injury, the surgeon usually attempts to fix the ligaments arthoscopically. This was Dr. David Altchek`s goal with Santana, but he plant that the charge was difficult to reach with an arthoscope and had to create an incision in the shoulder in place to fix it. This is evidently a less desirable method because it causes scar tissue, which can affect range of motion and lengthen the sentence of rehabilitation. As such, Santana may not fall to the majors until the All-Star Break in 2011. The last word from Carroll:
Santana will now begin rehab which is commonly tagged at 20-28 weeks with an intersection of a throwing program towards the end. There`s no new information on whether there was anything found during the function that would alter the prospect or prognosis. The beginning real sign we`ll get is potential to be when pitchers and catchers report to Port St. Lucie in February.
There is some conjecture that Santana would not be fully cured until well after he actually returns to the majors. Dr. Craig Levitz speculated that it would really take 3 months, or 70-80 innings, after Santana`s return for him to find his top form. He also notable that pitchers with this case of injury often return stronger than before, and that there is little risk of recurrence. As Levitz said, "Over all there is not a lot of terms to the shoulder with this injury_Once they finish the hollow in the delicate tissue, it should never be a job again."
Performance
Things have been different for Johan Santana since he left the American League for the National League Mets. From 2002 to 2007 he had an ERA of 2.92, striking out almost 10 batters per nine innings and walking 2.2 per 9 innings. His strikeout to walk ratio was a Lee-esque 4.38. Due to a real low hit rate, Santana`s WHIP hovered around 1.00. For right cause he was considered one of the preeminent pitchers in all of baseball. Contrary to expectations, Santana`s strikeout rate has dipped about two batters per 9 innings since joining the Mets, and his walk rate has increasedever-so-slightly to end to 2.5. As such, he`s posted FIPs in the mid 3.50s since coming to New York, certainly respectable but not just the commensurate with the highest expectations fans might have had for the well-paid ace. This graph shows his operation as a Met compared to his career numbers:
Peripherals-wise, 2010 was Santana`s worst year. This is to be expected, given that he was coming off minor elbow surgery from the offseason prior and had his season cut dead by the shoulder injury in September. One thing we don`t love is to what extent Santana pitched through discomfort or annoyance in 2010 before acknowledging his injury. We also don`t know if the gradual destruction of his shoulder ligaments was responsible for the slump in performance. The quotation from Carroll`s source above seems to support that the pitcher will probably experience discomfort, weakness and a departure of speed before actually needing surgery to fix the injury. It would be ordered to require a bounceback in speed and strikeout stuff, but within any injury there is a large amount of adventure and variance. It all hinges on how well Santana heals.
Despite the wane in performance, Santana was however a really valuable pitcher for the Mets in 2010. As a prompt and easy comparison, his 3.5 fWAR in 199 innings in 2010 ranks similar to Shaun Marcum and Wandy Rodriguez`s performance. Overthe past 3 years, despite an injury-shortened 2009, he`s accumulated 11.0 fWAR. This is more than Andy Pettitte, James Shields, John Lackey or Ted Lilly. If he had thrown 200 innings in 2009 it`s probable that he would read more fWAR in the past 3 years than Matt Cain, Roy Oswalt or Javier Vazquez. Of course, he didn`t throw 200 innings in 2009, so the degree is moot. Regardless, Santana is even a valuable pitcher. Compare his performance information above with this data for CC Sabathia:
Sabathia and Santana both have somewhat similar FIPs and ERAs, but Santana seems consistently able to exceed his FIP. They too receive similar strikeout rates. Sabathia`s walk rates are slightly worse than Santana but CC generates far more groundballs than Santana, a clear boon in Yankee Stadium. Santana`s flyball tendencies play well in Citi Field but would probably be less advantageous in another venue. Sabathia`s numbers are also more impressive in the AL East. All things considered, Sabathia is a more desirable starter, but just because Santana isn`t replicating his same degree of control from years past doesn`t imply that he`s no longer valuable. Mid-3 FIP pitchers with full hold and strikeout stuff don`t get on trees.
Johan Santana isn`t what he formerly was, and he`s coming off a major injury with a long rehabilitation timeframe. There are sound reasons for optimism though, reasons that don`t solely consist of fluff and happy thoughts. If Santana can pitch again like he has as a Met, he`ll have good rate for his team. Of course, there`s the whole head of the contract, a wonder which I`ll address tomorrow morning before trying to see how the craft market could house up. See you then.
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